ISLAMABAD – As the political cauldron heats up—with rifts emerging within the ruling parties, the opposition gearing up for protests, whispers of new provinces gaining momentum, and speculation mounting over the federal government’s future—the numbers game is once again assuming critical importance in the emerging political scenario. The importance of the “Magic figure” in determining a government’s political strength becomes most apparent when the leader of the house chooses to seek a vote of confidence to demonstrate his majority.
The magic figure in the current National Assembly is 169, the simple majority required in a house. The leader of the house has to maintain 169 votes to assume the charge, which can subsequently be challenged through a no-trust motion. The survival of a ruling clique ultimately hinges on its ability to demonstrate majority in the House. In the current political scenario, the ruling party [PML-N] has not only been facing threats from the opposition but also the main coalition partner threatening to non-cooperate in the centre. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has recently threatened to stay away from the PML-N’s govt. The PPP’s Chairman has conveyed that the countdown has started for the govt in the centre. This veiled threat has created many rumors in political arena. The political pundits viewed the ruling party has started work to secure its ‘numerical strength’ in the House, as its main coalition partner [PPP] is hinting to sit on opposition benches.
Political and constitutional experts viewed that the PML-N is not much worried about losing its main coalition partner [PPP], having 74 votes in the House. The PML-N, without the support of 74 members, has easily been touching magic figures. “The PML-N without PPP has been enjoying five more votes of 169 figure,” they said, mentioning that PPP with the support of 89 opposition members can only secure 163 votes (less than simple majority 169) to form the government. Talking to this newspaper, PML-N’s senior parliamentarian Riaz Pirzada said the PPP will avoid this adventure. “There are many possibilities in politics, so everything is possible,” he said, mentioning that the PML-N has numerical strength to run the government in the future even without a main allied partner.
Interestingly, the PTI has also not publicly shown any interest to join hands with the PPP. “PPP had stolen our mandate. How can we join hands with them in this scenario,” PTI’s Sheikh Waqas Akram, recently shared with the media. Background discussions with senior parliamentarians revealed that the PPP will not completely detach in the current political scenario. The PPP and the PML-N have many common grounds in politics, so the verbal clashes will never end. However, the ruling party can never ignore the magic figure. The ruling coalition has 243 members with PML-N 131, PPP 74, MQM-P 22, PML(Q) 4 and others. This tally is easily touching enough majority in the lower house of the parliament for ensuing legislation in the House.
