International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Friday that Middle East energy production may take around two years to return to pre-war levels, while signaling that further emergency stock releases remain under consideration.
The recovery would vary across countries, with Iraq likely taking longer than Saudi Arabia, although the region overall could return to pre-war output in about two years, Birol said in an interview with Switzerland’s German-language daily Neue Zurcher Zeitung.
He said production would improve significantly once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but reaching full capacity would still take time.
The IEA stands ready to act again if needed after releasing 400 million barrels from emergency reserves in March, the largest drawdown in the agency’s history, Birol added.
He said another release was not yet necessary, but remained under active consideration as the agency monitors markets closely.
Birol stressed that reserve releases can only ease short-term bottlenecks, noting that the most important step for stabilizing energy supply is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Any move that helps reopen the waterway would be positive, he added.
Birol also said the IEA is tracking widespread damage to regional energy infrastructure, warning that markets should not expect an immediate return to normal even after the strait reopens.
He warned that markets may be underpricing the fallout from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, saying such a disruption would push energy prices higher and deepen supply strains.
Birol said no new deliveries of oil, gas, or refined fuels had reached Asian markets, adding that supply gaps were beginning to appear as the disruption dragged on. He said poorer countries could face the heaviest burden because weaker currencies and limited financial resources leave them more exposed to rising import costs.
He also warned that shortages of refined products such as kerosene and diesel could emerge if crude shipments fail to reach refineries, raising the risk of flight disruptions, cancellations, and industrial supply problems in some countries.
