WASHINGTON – Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve by launching a limited attack on an allied country within the next few years, according to three sources familiar with those reports. The intelligence assessments outline several possible scenarios for Russian escalation, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale incursion intended to challenge NATO’s unity and commitment to Article 5, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all, without necessarily crossing the threshold for an allied response, the sources said. While how and when Putin might do so remains an open question, one of the sources said he is most likely to escalate in some way by targeting the Baltics or Poland. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the recent assessments. US and NATO officials believe Putin may choose to escalate against NATO if he is unable to secure a face-saving off-ramp to the war with Ukraine, the sources added, noting the Russian president’s window for choosing his next course of action spans between now and the next few years. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, declined to comment on classified intelligence assessments but said NATO is “always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios.”
“NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate,” he added.
There have been numerous instances over the last few years of Russia encroaching on NATO territory. In May, a drone carrying explosives hit an apartment building in Romania as Russian forces attacked a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring two people. And last September, NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine.
And just this week, the US assessed that an explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport in Germany overnight on Wednesday belonged to a Russian intelligence service, a US defense official in Europe told CNN. The official said the drone was carrying military-grade explosives; CNN previously reported it was discovered by an airport staff member in a secure area of cargo flight operations.
CNN asked the Kremlin for comment on the US intel asses
